CSU and TSR predict an extremely active 2011 Atlantic hurricane season
A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued Wednesday by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is a very aggressive one, since only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (49% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (48% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 62% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1989, 1961, and 1956. The average activity for these years was 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
The forecasters cited several reasons for their forecast of a much above-average season:
1) Unusually warm sea surface temperatures continue in the tropical Atlantic this fall, an indication that the active hurricane period we have been in since 1995 will continue (in technical terms, the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO, will continue.) SSTs in Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the Caribbean eastwards to the coast of Africa, were at a record high in October (November data are not yet available.)
2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. This occurs because El Niño events tend to increase westerly upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, bringing high wind shear harmful for hurricanes. The CSU team notes that we are currently experiencing moderate to strong La Niña conditions, with an unusual amount of cool water present in the top 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. Since 1979, only eight years have had similar amounts of cool water in November. The hurricane seasons that followed each of those eight years were unable to transition to El Niño conditions. Thus, the CSU team expects that we will have neutral or La Niña conditions in place for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011, which should act to keep wind shear values average to below average, enhancing hurricane activity. Of the 16 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2011 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 4 (25%) predicted that El Niño would arrive.
How accurate are the December forecasts?
The CSU real-time December forecasts did not shown any skill over the period 1992 - 2007, so the forecast scheme was overhauled and a new scheme implemented for the forecasts made for the 2008 - 2010 hurricane seasons. This new scheme showed some decent skill in those three years, with skill levels 18%, 10%, and 30% above chance for predicting the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. Still, three years is too short of a time period to evaluate the skill of these December forecasts, and we should view the latest forecast as an experimental research product. Last year's December forecast for the 2010 hurricane season predicted 13.5 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.
Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November 2010. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that 4 models predict weak El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America (the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.
2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Monday. They are also calling for a very active year: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 66% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 22% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 12% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.3°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.7 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for a weak La Niña in August-September 2011.
I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 2% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 1% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.
Comparing 2005 and 2010 steering currents
The U.S. got extremely fortunate during the 2010 hurricane season that the steering currents carried most of the storms out to sea, or forced them to the south. A very graphic way of looking at this is to compare the amount of rain that fell due to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in 2005 versus 2010 (Figure 2.) The U.S. received a direct hit only from Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida as a minimal 40 mph tropical storm and caused no significant damage. TSR is predicting that this luck will not hold in 2010; they project that five named storms will hit the U.S., with two of these being hurricanes.
Figure 2. Rainfall amounts due to all Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2005 and 2010, as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. Steering currents in 2010 tended to recurve many storms out to sea between the Caribbean and Bermuda, due to a large number of unusually strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast.
Weekend winter storm for Eastern U.S.
The latest 06Z (1am EST) set of computer model forecasts for this weekend's winter storm over the Midwest and Eastern U.S. point towards a more northerly path for the storm, bringing the axis of heaviest snow through Wisconsin and Michigan. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the predicted timing and strength of the storm, but a renewed blast of cold air Monday and Tuesday over the Southeast U.S. is still highly likely in the wake of the storm.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 — Blog Index
Take a look at the theoretical maximum potential intensity for hurricanes, for example. We never do actually see a system achieve it.
Or the theoretical efficiency of an engine. Or what theory says for network bandwidth, down the wire level. Or what the temperature should be tonight, in theory. (We do okay at that last one, because of all of our statistical data that shows that ways in which the theory misses on reality)
And some theories' symptoms are obvious, but not the causes or the sensitivities to slight changes in the causes, such as gravity.
As Jedkins, I have a formal education in the earth sciences and all I see in climate change is a new area of study that is not well understood, yet. So very much of the theory is based on untested physical equations that were built around the slightest bit of data and a large amount of assumption.
+100
for sure, that's exactly what I am getting at.
And, I can assure you that science is all about being skeptical until hard, non-circumstantial evidence is presented to support any hypothesis and/or theory. Period.
Religion and politics are about accepting what one has been told how it is.
Then, I'm not telling you anything you didn't already know...
Mid Missouri is pretty chilly too...LOL
Yes, it is changing: it's getting warmer. And more quickly than anyone could have envisioned.
Typically political BS is started so that someone can profit; see many alternative energy companies profitting form your "panic"? Who else stands to profit from wide-spread panic...hmmm...
I grow weary of the uninformed saying things like this; you say these things to start arguments when in reality you are no more qualified to make these pronouncements than the ASE certified mechanic mentioned further down this string...
:)
Is it cold enough 4 u? I'm FREEZING.... 50 degrees in Nassau! Pshaw....
yup
And the inanity that goes with it.
Misused word of the day. Congrats!
Good evening.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Welcome to the wonderful world of post season!
And the inanity that goes with it
lol
The term "global warming" is applied because, while some places may get cooler for short periods of time, the overall global climate is heating up, and rapidly.
If "this global warming trend continues for 2 or 3 centuries", the only adjustment mankind would be able to make is migrating en masse to another planet, for this one would be as uninhabitable as Venus. Not that it will continue that long; even the most ardent contrarians will be forced to admit the catastrophic error of their ways long before that. ;-)
Amy!
I was feeling ornery and decided to come in here and pick a fight...LOL
You speak the truth...an internal combustion engine gets a tiny fraction of it's theoretical energy from it's fuel...maybe a better way to say it is "potential"?
BTW, I am reluctant to speak using "absolutes" because I, like Jedkins, realize that in science they rarely exist, mainly because our knowledge is constantly changing. But that was the point of another post....
Have a good one...
:)
I agree with you. And so far as AGW theory is concerned, there are piles of "hard, non-circumstantial evidence" to bolster it--the reason my initial skepticism morphed into support many years ago, and continues to solidify each day and with every new piece of evidence.
Laugh if you wish, but my confidence is born of the knowledge that there exists vastly more evidence supporting the theory than exists refuting it. Now, aside from ridicule, one-liners, and endless recitations of oft-debunked "counter-proof", what, really, does the other side have?
And with that, I am out again until morning. G'night, all...
In my opinion, the evidence supporting that man has had a significant part in detected trends (except that polluted by UHI) and that modeled climate of the future is all circumstantial.
I suppose it is fickle enough that one can still be left to their own interpretations...of which no one here will change of anyone else.
answer:
SQUAWK!!!!!!
;)
Even a peace loving hippie likes a good row now and then...see how the other half lives, as it were...LOL
Meanwhile, who is this McBill character??? Sure hope u can handle the "heat" when the 2011 season gets going, dude.... sounds like u might add some spice to the tropical wx discussion next year.... lol
Later....
Earlier today there were 11 stations in Greenland reporting precipitation , 7 of them were reporting rain.
Currently :
Qaqortoq 51.0 °F Light Rain
http://www.wunderground.com/global/GL.html
11/16/2010 – The overall warming of the earth's northern half could result in cold winters. The shrinking of sea-ice in the eastern Arctic causes some regional heating of the lower levels of air – which may lead to strong anomalies in atmospheric airstreams, triggering an overall cooling of the northern continents, a study recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research shows. “These anomalies could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe and northern Asia,” says Vladimir Petoukhov, lead author of the study and climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “Recent severe winters like last year’s or the one of 2005-06 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it.”
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/global-warming-could-cool-down-temperatures-in-winter ?set_language=en
Here is an example of our AGW data, to date.
Trend data of my AC in my house doesn't exist, either. But I'm not about to assume that I have windows open all summer just because it runs longer when I start measuring it's on/off cycles this year. I'll assume that my 12 year old unit just loses efficiency over time. But other possible causes would be investigated before I just off and buy a new compressor, I assure you.
Is it possible that a window is open? Of course. Is it possible that one or another component isn't operating the same as it once was? Of course. Is it possible that there is an anthropogenic blockage of the air intake by my kid's in-house tent? Of course.
The cause...well, if one simply assumes any one of the above possibilities is true, they rule out the rest without actually checking them. This is exactly the state of the AGW evidence. Other possibilities haven't even been thought of, nor checked as we haven't measured anything long enough nor well enough to rule out anything else.
And we'll not have good evidence of anything, either way, for decades, at least.
When the "seas will boil" crew are out to play, I just cannot help myself.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20101209/tr_ac/7371208_panama_canal_reopens_for_traffic_after_historic_f looding
A Determination of the Cloud
Feedback from Climate Variations
over the Past Decade
A. E. Dessler
with respect to some earlier posts
Greenland ice sheet flow driven by short-term weather extremes, not gradual warming: UBC research
and a bonus :)
'Greener' Climate Prediction Shows Plants Slow Warming ~~ NASA
How is everyone doing tonight?
Pilotguy1, to answer your question, the "ideal" temperature for the Earth is the temperature that will support the largest diversity of life. With, or without, man's involvement in the natural cycle of the Earth's ever changing climate there are windows of time that best supports this scenario. There has been and will be times that Earth's climate supports minimal diversity of life. This should not deflect from the fact that the Earth is warming now and faster than in the past cycles without any major climate changing natural events. This would include major volcanic events and impacts from space, for examples. Should man have the technology to use to attempt to achieve the most desirable climate for the greatest diversity of life on Earth then I consider it in man's best interest to do so. Anything else would seem foolish, to me.
JMO
Australia battles worst floods in decades
Viewing: 151 - 201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 — Blog Index