CSU and TSR predict an extremely active 2011 Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:54 PM GMT vào 09 Tháng mười hai, 2010

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A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued Wednesday by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is a very aggressive one, since only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (49% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (48% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 62% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1989, 1961, and 1956. The average activity for these years was 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

The forecasters cited several reasons for their forecast of a much above-average season:

1) Unusually warm sea surface temperatures continue in the tropical Atlantic this fall, an indication that the active hurricane period we have been in since 1995 will continue (in technical terms, the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO, will continue.) SSTs in Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the Caribbean eastwards to the coast of Africa, were at a record high in October (November data are not yet available.)

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. This occurs because El Niño events tend to increase westerly upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, bringing high wind shear harmful for hurricanes. The CSU team notes that we are currently experiencing moderate to strong La Niña conditions, with an unusual amount of cool water present in the top 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. Since 1979, only eight years have had similar amounts of cool water in November. The hurricane seasons that followed each of those eight years were unable to transition to El Niño conditions. Thus, the CSU team expects that we will have neutral or La Niña conditions in place for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011, which should act to keep wind shear values average to below average, enhancing hurricane activity. Of the 16 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2011 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 4 (25%) predicted that El Niño would arrive.

How accurate are the December forecasts?
The CSU real-time December forecasts did not shown any skill over the period 1992 - 2007, so the forecast scheme was overhauled and a new scheme implemented for the forecasts made for the 2008 - 2010 hurricane seasons. This new scheme showed some decent skill in those three years, with skill levels 18%, 10%, and 30% above chance for predicting the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. Still, three years is too short of a time period to evaluate the skill of these December forecasts, and we should view the latest forecast as an experimental research product. Last year's December forecast for the 2010 hurricane season predicted 13.5 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.


Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November 2010. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that 4 models predict weak El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America (the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Monday. They are also calling for a very active year: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 66% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 22% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 12% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.3°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.7 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for a weak La Niña in August-September 2011.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 2% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 1% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Comparing 2005 and 2010 steering currents
The U.S. got extremely fortunate during the 2010 hurricane season that the steering currents carried most of the storms out to sea, or forced them to the south. A very graphic way of looking at this is to compare the amount of rain that fell due to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in 2005 versus 2010 (Figure 2.) The U.S. received a direct hit only from Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida as a minimal 40 mph tropical storm and caused no significant damage. TSR is predicting that this luck will not hold in 2010; they project that five named storms will hit the U.S., with two of these being hurricanes.


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts due to all Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2005 and 2010, as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. Steering currents in 2010 tended to recurve many storms out to sea between the Caribbean and Bermuda, due to a large number of unusually strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast.

Weekend winter storm for Eastern U.S.
The latest 06Z (1am EST) set of computer model forecasts for this weekend's winter storm over the Midwest and Eastern U.S. point towards a more northerly path for the storm, bringing the axis of heaviest snow through Wisconsin and Michigan. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the predicted timing and strength of the storm, but a renewed blast of cold air Monday and Tuesday over the Southeast U.S. is still highly likely in the wake of the storm.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Skyepony:
Cool PDO does tends to warm the Arctic & higher latitudes.

WARM PHASE..........................................................................................COOL PHASE


But I don't see how we can blame the PDO on the difference from the 1970s vs 2000s. The PDO was more cool in the '70s... so in the absence of any warming from other forcings the '70s should have had the warmer Arctic. As Neapolitan's post points out.. it didn't.



Tough to say. Like all other things earth science, we have to assume PDO cycles are exceedingly variable. But we have only thoroughly measured the effects of half of one.
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476. JRRP
well see you later
Link
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475. JRRP
Quoting Neapolitan:

No. During the positive ("warm") phase of the PDO, the western Pacific cools while the eastern Pacific warms; the opposite happens during the negative ("cool") phase. The maps I posted, then, clearly do not show such a phenomenon; they show, rather, an increasing heating up of the entire planet. That is, global warming.

me rindo
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GOM IR Loop dee Loop





Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
912 am CST Sat Dec 11 2010


Update...


..sounding discussion...


No problems with the flight this morning. The lower levels are
beginning to moisten up as southerly winds increase ahead of a
strong approaching frontal boundary with a precipitable water of 0.78 inches. A
large cap of dry air remains in place above 725 millibars. A
moderate to strong westerly flow in place from 800 millibars up
through the upper levels. A broken to overcast deck of stratocumulus
clouds in place at around 4000 feet where dewpoint depressions are
around 5 degrees farenheit.




&&


Previous discussion... /issued 520 am CST Sat Dec 11 2010/


Synopsis...
surface high pressure ridge covers the far eastern Continental U.S.. a strong
cold front extended from a low pressure area over western Iowa to
another low pressure area over north central Texas. Northwest
winds were gusting in the 35 to 45 miles per hour range over much of South
Dakota and Nebraska. An upper trough over the northern/Central
Plains was amplifying and driving southeast.


Short term /today through Monday night/...
the upper trough and cold front will continue to move rapidly
southeast today and tonight. The cold front will enter the
northwest portion of the forecast area early in the evening then
move off the coast around midnight or shortly thereafter. Am
favoring the faster GFS model which does not allow much in the way
of warm sector instability to return before the frontal passage
this evening.


There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over roughly the
northern half of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. The
severe potential is dependent on better daytime heating and
dewpoints higher than the upper 50s/near 60 indicated by the mav
guidance. Upstream dewpoints at this time are only in the upper
40s to lower 50s over the central Gulf of Mexico...but veering low
level winds late in the afternoon should allow the higher upper
50s dewpoints now over the northwest Gulf to move into our area.
Dynamics and kinematics/wind fields will be strong...so any higher
than forecast instability could allow numerous severe
thunderstorms with damaging straight line winds and isolated
tornadoes to develop. A few showers may linger for an hour or two
behind the front...but fairly rapid clearing is expected after
midnight to 3 am.


Regarding winds...models show northwest winds behind the cold
front as high as 35 to 45 knots at 2000 feet...and near 50 knots
at 3000 feet. A tight pressure gradient and strong cold air
advection will allow some stronger wind gusts of 35 to 40 knots
over some land areas...mainly near the tidal lakes and coast.
Sustained winds will be mostly in the 20 to 30 miles per hour range. Our
local Wind Advisory criteria...over 25 miles per hour...will be met along the
South Shore of lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas and extending
south to the coast. A Wind Advisory has been issued valid from
midnight tonight to 3 PM Sunday.
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473. Skyepony (Mod)
Cool PDO does tends to warm the Arctic & higher latitudes.

WARM PHASE..........................................................................................COOL PHASE


But I don't see how we can blame the PDO on the difference from the 1970s vs 2000s. The PDO was more cool in the '70s... so in the absence of any warming from other forcings the '70s should have had the warmer Arctic. As Neapolitan's post points out.. it didn't.



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Quoting Skyepony:
Blackened Pork: Liquid Coal Subsidies Sneak into Senate Tax Bill

Is regular coal not dirty enough for you? Meet liquid coal fuel! Destructive to mine, water-intensive to manufacture, devastating to our climate at every step of the way – liquid coal is one of the world’s dirtiest fuels. Liquid coal production emits twice as much global warming pollution as gasoline & requires at least four gallons of water per gallon of fuel produced.

Today the National Wildlife Federation has learned the Senate version of tax legislation includes subsidies for liquid coal fuels. Section 704 of the Senate tax bill as written right now would extend the Alternative Fuel Tax Credit to liquid coal, giving a 50-cent tax credit for each gallon of liquid coal sold or used in a fuel mixture. While many senators have fought to include important clean energy provisions in the the tax package, the National Wildlife Federation strongly opposes expanding alternative fuel tax credits to cover dirty liquid coal.

Why? For starters, the provision could cost taxpayers $400 million per plant, every year. That’s on top of the subsidy coal already receives by not having to pay for its pollution – today in America, polluters can dump as much carbon pollution as they want into our atmosphere free of charge.

The carbon-intensive process of turning coal into liquid fuel is only part of the equation. The liquid coal is then burned by the vehicle, where it emits even more carbon pollution than traditional gasoline, along with plenty of other pollutants to the air in our communities. And of course there are all the ecological risks linked to coal mining – habitat loss, ground water contamination & mountaintop removal.

Why does the coal industry need these huge subsidies? The coal business is in the black these days (no pun intended). Peabody Energy, the largest private-sector coal company in the world, just reported its profits doubled the last quarter to $224 million in just those three months.

But while coal-fired electrical power is incredibly profitable, producing dirty liquid coal fuels is phenomenally expensive. Liquid coal facilities cost as much as $6 billion for a single plant.

The bottom line is, liquid coal can’t stand on its own two legs. It needs massive subsidies from Congress AND it needs to be able to treat our atmosphere like an open sewer. If both of those things aren’t true, liquid coal simply can’t compete with cleaner energy sources.



How disturbing. How sad. Yet how utterly unsurprising...
Member Since: Tháng mười một 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13629
Quoting JRRP:

PDO ???

No. During the positive ("warm") phase of the PDO, the western Pacific cools while the eastern Pacific warms; the opposite happens during the negative ("cool") phase. The maps I posted, then, clearly do not show such a phenomenon; they show, rather, an increasing heating up of the entire planet. That is, global warming.
Member Since: Tháng mười một 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13629
Yeah,,,itsa state secret.


AMO PDO = Temperature Variation: One Graph Does Not Says It All

Published by Briggs at 8:44 am under Climatology,Statistics



Introduction

Anthony Watts over at Watts Up With That incidentally, a blog title infinitely superior to William M. Briggs, Statistician asked me to comment on Joe Aleo and Don Easterbrooks new paper, Multidecadal tendencies in ENSO and global temperatures related to multidecadel oscillations. The title of this post is based upon Wattss.

Before getting to it, let me head off a criticism sure to be leveled at D&E, one which is a logical fallacy. It does not matter that their paper has been released unto the aether and that it has not gone through the tempering process of peer review. That is, their results are not false because a hostile editor did not have a chance to reject them.

Anybody who thus shouts, No peer review! to reject D&E has fallen prey to the I want it to be false, therefore it is false fallacy.

When we hear this argument, it tells us more about the person making it than it does about the thesis under consideration.

A truth is true wherever it is spoken. Im surprised at how often this has to be pointed out.

AMO & PDO

First some statistical truths. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a function of sea surface temperature. The brother Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation (PDO) is also a function of sea surface temperature. They are called mutidecadal oscillations because these indexes have been found empirically to bounce up then down on something like a decadal time scale.

The bouncing is not perfectly regular nor entirely predictable, the Earth being what she is. Since the AMO and PDO are functions of sea surface temperature, the mechanisms that cause temperature to change will cause these indexes to change. Examples of mechanisms: solar output, continental shift, land-use changes, atmospheric gas changes, and so forth. Note carefully that none of these are themselves functions of temperature. What about ocean currents? Well, those dont sound like temperature, but they're closely related because currents change partly in relation to how air temperature changes. That is, changes in air temperature are naturally correlated with changes in ocean circulation.

Obviously, sea surface temperature, thus AMO and PDO, must be highly correlated with air temperatures. When AMO or PDO goes up or down, we should expect that, on average, air temperature will go up or down. There is no mystery why this is so. Thus, direct correlations of the AMO and PDO and air temperature are of little use.

Since AMO is a function of sea surface temperature and PDO is a function of sea surface temperature, if either of these functions of sea surface temperature did not correlate with air temperature, we should be very worried. But about our analysis, not the climate. Of course, adding two functions of sea surface temperature together AMO PDO produces yet one more function of sea surface temperature.

These indexes can be of some predictive use for air temperature, but only if the mechanisms that cause changes in sea surface temperature precede changes in air temperature. Loosely, in how sea surface temperatures now will drive air temperatures later. The usefulness is limited because many of the mechanisms that drive sea surface temperatures also drive changes in air temperatures. See below for what this means.

Now, the Atlantic is one side of the world, the Pacific the other. The AMO thus is a proxy for sea surface temperatures on one side, the PDO the other. Added together, we should have a rough idea of the sea surface temperature over the whole world; at least, the addition would almost certainly be a better measure than either alone.
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Quoting FFtrombi:


Indeed, what is the mechanism causing the PDO?
We collectively do not know the answer to that...
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Quoting JRRP:

PDO ???


Indeed, what is the mechanism causing the PDO?
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466. JRRP
Quoting Neapolitan:
Her's a great pair of images from the NASA Earth Observatory Site.

The top map shows temperature anomalies--that is, how much warmer the world was--in the years 1970–1979 compared to the average temperature from 1951–1980. You can see that some parts of the Earth warmed and others cooled in the 1970s.

The bottom map is the same, only showing anomalies from 2000–2009 compared to 1951–1980. Even if you throw out the polar measurements--say, anything north of 60 degrees N. and south of 60 degrees south, as some would like to do--you'll still be hard-pressed to find many areas of anomalous cooling in the bottom map.

interesting, no?

Appropriate weather-related image

PDO ???
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465. Skyepony (Mod)
NASA GISS November data is out too..

Sources and parameters: GHCN_GISS_HR2SST_1200km_Anom11_2010_2010_1951_1980

Note: Gray areas signify missing data.
Graphics bug: Occasionally the color for the .5-1C range is replaced by gray.
Note: Ocean data are not used over land nor within 100km of a reporting land station.




Fig 1: Global map

Fig 2: Zonal averages map

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464. Skyepony (Mod)
Blackened Pork: Liquid Coal Subsidies Sneak into Senate Tax Bill

Is regular coal not dirty enough for you? Meet liquid coal fuel! Destructive to mine, water-intensive to manufacture, devastating to our climate at every step of the way – liquid coal is one of the world’s dirtiest fuels. Liquid coal production emits twice as much global warming pollution as gasoline & requires at least four gallons of water per gallon of fuel produced.

Today the National Wildlife Federation has learned the Senate version of tax legislation includes subsidies for liquid coal fuels. Section 704 of the Senate tax bill as written right now would extend the Alternative Fuel Tax Credit to liquid coal, giving a 50-cent tax credit for each gallon of liquid coal sold or used in a fuel mixture. While many senators have fought to include important clean energy provisions in the the tax package, the National Wildlife Federation strongly opposes expanding alternative fuel tax credits to cover dirty liquid coal.

Why? For starters, the provision could cost taxpayers $400 million per plant, every year. That’s on top of the subsidy coal already receives by not having to pay for its pollution – today in America, polluters can dump as much carbon pollution as they want into our atmosphere free of charge.

The carbon-intensive process of turning coal into liquid fuel is only part of the equation. The liquid coal is then burned by the vehicle, where it emits even more carbon pollution than traditional gasoline, along with plenty of other pollutants to the air in our communities. And of course there are all the ecological risks linked to coal mining – habitat loss, ground water contamination & mountaintop removal.

Why does the coal industry need these huge subsidies? The coal business is in the black these days (no pun intended). Peabody Energy, the largest private-sector coal company in the world, just reported its profits doubled the last quarter to $224 million in just those three months.

But while coal-fired electrical power is incredibly profitable, producing dirty liquid coal fuels is phenomenally expensive. Liquid coal facilities cost as much as $6 billion for a single plant.

The bottom line is, liquid coal can’t stand on its own two legs. It needs massive subsidies from Congress AND it needs to be able to treat our atmosphere like an open sewer. If both of those things aren’t true, liquid coal simply can’t compete with cleaner energy sources.


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Her's a great pair of images from the NASA Earth Observatory Site.

The top map shows temperature anomalies--that is, how much warmer the world was--in the years 1970–1979 compared to the average temperature from 1951–1980. You can see that some parts of the Earth warmed and others cooled in the 1970s.

The bottom map is the same, only showing anomalies from 2000–2009 compared to 1951–1980. Even if you throw out the polar measurements--say, anything north of 60 degrees N. and south of 60 degrees south, as some would like to do--you'll still be hard-pressed to find many areas of anomalous cooling in the bottom map.

interesting, no?

Appropriate weather-related image
Member Since: Tháng mười một 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13629
Meanwhile, it's shaping up to be a great day in the Bahamas...

Current Conditions

Nassau, BS (Airport)
Updated: 9:00 AM EST on December 11, 2010
77 °F / 25 °C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 70 °F / 21 °C
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.06 in / 1018 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers

So I'm heading out into that extreme cold weather out there, hat, gloves, scarf and EVERYthing.... lol

Ya'll have a wonderful day... don't let the Christmas shopping break you up too bad....



Member Since: Tháng mười 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22599
Hey Orca... u're up early this Sat. a.m.... golfing?

LOL
Member Since: Tháng mười 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22599
Complete Update





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Quoting OGal:
Good Morning Everyone, lots of fog here in Orlando too. Nice temps later today and then the bottom falls out tomorrow night. Governor Charlie Crist has issued a State of Emergency for Florida due to the cold temperatures.

It's smoggy here in my part of Collier County; smoke from a few local brush fires is mixing in with the cold fog, making this place look and feel like Denver. Only without the mountains.

Aside from enforcing strict anti-gouging laws, that freeze emergency declaration is mainly for the benefit of growers; it allows them to temporarily bypass standard weight and size restrictions where transporting produce is concerned. Bottom line: if you're planning on doing any driving in Central Florida next week, be on the lookout for overweight, extra-wide, double-bottom trailers. They'll be easy to spot; just watch for the trucks dropping bouncing oranges. ;-)
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Nevermind Link
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Quoting OGal:
Good Morning Everyone, lots of fog here in Orlando too. Nice temps later today and then the bottom falls out tomorrow night. Governor Charlie Crist has issued a State of Emergency for Florida due to the cold temperatures.

Where did you see that?
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452. IKE
That should fire up the GW believers.....

.......................................

Leon and EJ....If it wasn't for you I'd be happy....If it wasn't for bad you'de be good....

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NASA data shows that November was the warmest November on record, globally, by a whopping 0.06 degrees C, beating the previous record set last year. And this during a deep solar minimum and moderate to strong La Nina event.


Link
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450. IKE
54 hour 6Z NAM...cold air diving well into peninsula Florida....



78 hour 6Z GFS...

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449. OGal
Good Morning Everyone, lots of fog here in Orlando too. Nice temps later today and then the bottom falls out tomorrow night. Governor Charlie Crist has issued a State of Emergency for Florida due to the cold temperatures.
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Quoting natrwalkn:
I think that all the evidence I have seen overwhelmingly supports AGW. However, the reason we haven't stopped using fossil fuels is because there is nothing that can come close to generating enough energy to sustain the industrialized society we live in now without using fossil fuels. If we stopped using fossil fuels immediately, the death toll on the planet would surge into the multiple millions or even billions because we cannot sustain our current population without fossil fuels. Unless some startling and miraculous scientific breakthrough is made, we will continue to burn fossil fuels until they are all gone, and when production begins a marked trend downward worldwide, nobody will be worried about AGW anymore because there will be much worse things to worry about. Just my pessimistic opinion that we will not find an adequate replacement for fossil fuels fast enough to avoid global disaster.
It's the places at the poles that are going to be worst hit if we don't find an energy solution soon. Keep in mind that before fossil fuel consumption became heavy pple in these areas were burning their trees.... think about a "Haitified" Canada, Russia, South Africa, Argentina.... alternatively, think about population shifts to areas S of 30N.... if our currently climate shift carries with it at least the potential for more extreme winter events due to shifts in wx patterns, we could be in for a rough ride....

I see your point, not so much for how difficult it would be to change away from fossil fuels to something else based on the science / technology, but because due to inertia the vast majority of societies are not going to make the necessary changes now, when there's still some energy reserve left to fuel the transition. Fuel and water.... the hidden international dispute issues of the 21st century....
Member Since: Tháng mười 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22599
Quoting EnergyMoron:



Well, given that fossil fuels are finite stores of solar energy.... I just decided to use the solar directly.
Wish I could afford to implement here. Here in Nassau it's easy to pay $1000 per MONTH for one household's electricity bills, especially during the summer. Long-term, solar would be cheaper.
Member Since: Tháng mười 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22599
Quoting noorapac:
I don't even want to think about next season. It's still 2010..give me a break!
"experts" are never right.
Is this attitude why the world is such a mess? Have we come to such an automatic and complete disrespect of knowledge?
Member Since: Tháng mười 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22599
I think that all the evidence I have seen overwhelmingly supports AGW. However, the reason we haven't stopped using fossil fuels is because there is nothing that can come close to generating enough energy to sustain the industrialized society we live in now without using fossil fuels. If we stopped using fossil fuels immediately, the death toll on the planet would surge into the multiple millions or even billions because we cannot sustain our current population without fossil fuels. Unless some startling and miraculous scientific breakthrough is made, we will continue to burn fossil fuels until they are all gone, and when production begins a marked trend downward worldwide, nobody will be worried about AGW anymore because there will be much worse things to worry about. Just my pessimistic opinion that we will not find an adequate replacement for fossil fuels fast enough to avoid global disaster.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I used to support the AGW view. My epiphany came last year. I realized the"scientists" were cooking the data to further their own agendas. AND they were recruiting the Hollywood Crowd Drug Users to spread their half truths. Now the worm has turned. We do still need to clean up pollution and save the speckled snail but not because WE are causing global heating. Why we couldn't control hurricanes and now we are supposed to be changing the weather of the entire planet. Chill!


Huh? Not controlling hurricanes mean we can't change the climate? Like, we can't cure cancer so therefore murder is impossible?

Scientists aren't cooking the books but to agree with you in a sense, the images and graphs are much more believable. Forget the ones that have been attacked by big oil in their waves of disinformation, look at the pictures and look at this graph in particular.

The scientists haven't hidden 70% of the ice in the arctic to make a cover story for a new grant. If they could hide that ice, we would all be slaves to their awesome power and they wouldn't need grants. 70% of the ice volume! It's like ice skating when you are a kid, the ice gets thinner and thinner before it goes away ... yet it is still being spun as staying the same because the flat extent is up and down (though that is finally decreasing as well.) At what point do you stop trying to win an argument by argumentative techniques and accept that if you want to maintain integrity you have to answer to physical reality?
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443. Skyepony (Mod)
It is really foggy here.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


Yes it did and it was a lot more than just a few flurries. It was in February of that year and is still referred to as "The (Florida) Blizzard of 1899" or words to that effect.

In fact, Gulf effect snow flurries have happened quite a few times during severe cold snaps, when the temps are low enough and the winds are strong enough. Usually though, they are very light and only seen very near the shore. There was also an "ocean effect" event a few years back along the FL East coast, in the area around Cape Canaveral and points north.

I wish there was more info on that storm, I tried doing web searches in the past and gotten little more than a paragraph or two.
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

I don't think the NWS Tampa cares, if so they would have a Cat 5 hitting us or Miami once a week during hurricane season.;) Gulf effect snow hit the area in 1899 I believe.


Yes it did and it was a lot more than just a few flurries. It was in February of that year and is still referred to as "The (Florida) Blizzard of 1899" or words to that effect.

In fact, Gulf effect snow flurries have happened quite a few times during severe cold snaps, when the temps are low enough and the winds are strong enough. Usually though, they are very light and only seen very near the shore. There was also an "ocean effect" event a few years back along the FL East coast, in the area around Cape Canaveral and points north.
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Quoting EnergyMoron:


RLMREO.... gulf effect snow.

Are the folks in the link are reading this blog? The analysis is sound.

Good night (for real)

I don't think the NWS Tampa cares, if so they would have a Cat 5 hitting us or Miami once a week during hurricane season.;) Gulf effect snow hit the area in 1899 I believe.
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Ehh? All I added was Gulf effect snow, which it would be. Here's the link Link


RLMREO.... gulf effect snow.

Are the folks in the link are reading this blog? The analysis is sound.

Good night (for real)
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Quoting EnergyMoron:


Thanks if you did it on purpose.... the way you structured your quote was easy to edit on "quote".

Answer is easy (I just don't say this is easy but give the easy answer...) - NAO (negative North Atlantic Oscillation).

Learned about it on this blog BTW.

Ehh? All I added was Gulf effect snow headline, which it would be. Here's the link Link
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
GULF EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE N OF TAMPA

Public Information Statement
Statement as of 8:30 PM EST on December 10, 2010
... Another Arctic airmass expected early next week...

So what happened to the forecast of a near to slightly above normal
winter?


Thanks if you did it on purpose.... the way you structured your quote was easy to edit on "quote".

Answer is easy (I just don't say this is easy but give the easy answer...) - NAO (negative North Atlantic Oscillation).

Learned about it on this blog BTW.
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GULF EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE N OF TAMPA

Public Information Statement
Statement as of 8:30 PM EST on December 10, 2010
... Another Arctic airmass expected early next week...

So what happened to the forecast of a near to slightly above normal
winter? Well as occurred last winter the Arctic oscillation (ao)
has begun to dominate the weather pattern across the U.S.
Overwhelming the effects of the El Nino southern oscillation (el
nino/la nina). The ao is a short term oscillation on the scale of
a week or two while the enso is much longer on the scale of months.
The ao has little effect on our weather during the Summer months...
but during the winter there is a high correlation between it and
the temperatures we experience. Therefore... during the winter
months the ao can radically change the temperatures across the
area causing either much above or much below normal temperatures.
As it turns out the ao went into a highly negative phase back
around November 20th and bottomed out around the 27th. It has
since recovered back to around neutral... but as is generally the
case during the late fall and winter months there is about a 10 to
14 day lag before the effects of the ao are felt here in Florida.
Therefore... when the ao GOES highly negative we tend to see below
normal temperatures within about two weeks or so and when it GOES
highly positive we see above normal temperatures. So based on this
theory we should see closer to normal temperatures return during
the middle of December... but if the forecast models are correct the
ao is expected to go highly negative again in the next week or so
which would bring more cold weather the week before and after
Christmas. More information and graphics about the ao can be found
on the climate prediction center web site listed below:

Http://www.CPC.NOAA.Gov/products/precip/cwlink/daily_ao_index/ao.Shtml

So with this in mind its not surprising that another blast of Arctic
air is forecast to move into the region early next week... about two
weeks after the ao bottomed out. During Sunday a strong cold front
will move across the region followed by an area of cold Canadian high
pressure that will usher in the next shot of cold Arctic air for
Sunday night through about Wednesday. Temperatures during this time
period are expected to be about 15 to as much as 30 degrees below
normal... or at least as cold as what we saw earlier this week.

Ahead of the front southwest to west winds will increase to 15 to
25 mph with higher gusts Sunday morning then shift to northwest to
north behind the front. Over the coastal waters the winds will be
even stronger... especially behind the front as the cold air moves
across the relative warm Gulf waters... with gusts possibly to gale
force. The brisk conditions will continue through Monday over the
coastal waters and mariners may want to postpone or reschedule
trips during this time period. Also with the winds shifting from
southwest to northwest during Sunday some minor coastal flooding
may occur... especially along northwest facing coasts like along
portions of Pasco and northern Pinellas counties. At this time
tides on Sunday are expected to run about 1 to 2 feet above normal
from the Tampa Bay area northward and about 1 foot above normal
further south.

The cold air will become firmly entrenched during Sunday night into
Monday as the breezy northwest to north winds persist with forecast
lows dropping into the 30s and 40s combining with the winds to
cause wind chill values in the 20s and 30s. Daytime highs on
Monday will only climb into the lower 50s north to around 60 south.
And if all of this was not enough... late Sunday night into Monday
morning the combination of the cold air moving across the
relatively warm Gulf waters could cause some Gulf effect sprinkles
to develop... possibly even a few snow flurries north of the Tampa
Bay area.


The second night after the cold front moves through is typically
the coldest night which in this case is Monday night. A hard
freeze is likely across the Nature Coast Monday night into Tuesday
morning with low temperatures forecast to fall into the lower to
mid 20s... including 7 to 11 hours of temperatures below freezing.
Further south across the remainder of inland west central and
southwest Florida a freeze is likely... possibly a hard freeze in a
few spots... with temperatures forecast to drop into the mid 20s
to lower 30s... including 3 to as much as 8 hours of temperatures
below freezing. Similar to earlier this week coastal areas will
most likely escape the freezing temperatures... but still fall into
the mid 30s to lower 40s. Winds will lighten some Monday night
away from the coast... but continue between 5 and 10 mph so the
threat of frost will remain low.

During Tuesday and Tuesday night winds will diminish as the high
pressure moves toward the area with daytime temperatures remaining
rather cool and only climbing into the mid 50s north to lower 60s
south. Temperatures Tuesday night are expected to be the same or
a couple of degrees warmer than Monday night... but because the
winds are forecast to become light the threat of frost will
increase and become a good possibility.

Finally during Wednesday temperatures will begin to moderate with
highs climbing back into the 60s. However... the high will remain
across the region into Wednesday night with yet another chilly
night expected along with the possibility of some frost...
especially across the Nature Coast.

Over this weekend residents should prepare for the upcoming cold
weather. These types of severe freezes can pose a significant
threat to agriculture... exposed water pipes... such as those at
houses on stilts... some trailers... and pipes connected to swimming
pools. It can also be dangerous to people and pets that lack
adequate protection.

All residents and visitors of west central and southwest Florida
should stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for
further updates on this developing cold outbreak.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
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On the cold weather discussion of this blogs influence on my garden

Garden

Interesting to see the most interesting outside aspect of the house is the... garden. Nobody in any of the commentary on the article has noticed that there are solar panels (so much for the HOA argument sometimes used that they are ugly... the reality is that with a nice garden... they ain't noticed).

Anyway,

There is a comment on the linked blog that talks about plant height.

Fair enough... the salvias in the photo on the link were planted in March of this year.

The "stars" of the linked photo were planted in February of this year.

I had to make a decision on temperatures (the counterpoint being if I wait too late the root setting will not handle the summer).

Thanks to this blog the temperature on March 1 (or whatever day the minimum was reached) was about 29 at my house.

Success (enough to make the papers).

The flowers on the front row were in the ground for 1 week at the time.
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Quoting Ossqss:


I gotta go, this is too easy ~~~~ L8R >>>>>>



428.

My 12 year old does the same thing. I don't believe her either.
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which is beginning to spin up nicly

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Quoting BahaHurican:
1. Eating crow is the scientific way. You try different things until u find the one that works.



RLMREO (really laughed my rear end off)

True.

Same for AGW.

The rest of your post is very sane and reflects also the AGW reality.

There is a high uncertainty level.

Well, given that fossil fuels are finite stores of solar energy.... I just decided to use the solar directly.
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Orleans


High Wind Watch

Statement as of 3:44 PM CST on December 10, 2010

... High wind watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday
morning...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a high
wind watch... which is in effect from Saturday evening through
Sunday morning.

Strong northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are
possible south and southeast of tidal lakes late Saturday evening
through early Sunday morning. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible
along and immediately south of the shoreline of Lake
Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph... or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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