An early start to hurricane season?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:12 PM GMT vào 31 Tháng năm, 2011

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The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, but the Caribbean is already showing signs of the change of seasons. Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity have increased in the region between Central America and Jamaica in recent days, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches have been common over the past three days over Cuba, Hispaniola, and much of Central America. The subtropical jet stream has been bringing high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots over the Caribbean the past week, but this shear has fallen to 20 - 40 knots this morning, and is predicted to fall below 20 knots by Thursday. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. There is some dry air over the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that may retard the process, but a surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently passing through the Lesser Antilles may counteract this, when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Some recent runs of the NOGPAS model have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 1. Total precipitable water (a measure of how much rain would fall if we condensed all the water vapor present) for May 31, 2011 at 7am EDT. Plentiful water vapor in the SW Caribbean would create about 2 inches of rain (50 mm, orange colors) if it were all condensed out. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

Receipt did not travel 525 miles from Joplin tornado
The May 22 EF-5 tornado that struck Joplin, Missouri did not set a new record for longest transport of debris by a tornado. According to MSNBC, a couple living in Royal Center, Indiana, in North Central Indiana, 525 miles from Joplin, found a receipt from the Joplin Tire store three days after the tornado hit Joplin. However, a press release from Purdue University clarified that the receipt did not arrive via the tornado, but had been left behind by a relative that had visited Joplin before the tornado. The longest distance recorded for debris from a storm was a cancelled check that traveled 210 miles after the 1915 tornado in Great Bend, Kansas.

The death toll from the May 22, 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri is 139, although there is still considerable uncertainty about this number. The Joplin tornado is the 8th deadliest in U.S. history, and the most deadly since the 1947 Woodward, Oklahoma twister that killed 181 people. The tornado season of 2011 now has approximately 520 deaths, which would make it the deadliest tornado season since 1936, according to statistics compiled by NOAA. In the 1936 tornado season 552 people died, mostly because of violent tornadoes that hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)


Figure 2. Satellite image taken at 23:45 UTC (7:45pm EDT) May 22, 2011, showing the line of tornadic thunderstorms that spawned the Joplin tornado. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

Jeff Masters

Joplin, MO (Portlight)
Joplin, MO

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246. beell
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
It's official: The GFS has gone mad. Tries to move the low north and south and west and east like a jackhammer.


Couple of notable items in the 12Z GFS:

1. A storm in the EPAC towards the end of this week.

2. A continued strengthening of the Caribbean Monsoon. To the point of displacing the easterlies N of 20N in the eastern Caribbean. At present, the strong trades are working against organization. 15-20 knots of fairly deep (700mb) southwesterly flow from the EPAC. Also occuring towards the end of this week. Something has got to give sooner or later if that holds true.
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Quoting FLdewey:

#Winning!


Aww, imagine Charlie Sheen as a meteorologist....
Member Since: Tháng tám 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
244. JRRP
UKM 12z
96hr

144hr


ok see you later
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Will the ATLANTIC go GREEN BALL soon?
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Plop!
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Quoting IKE:

Eventually takes it across eastern Cuba. Where are you located....let me guess....south Florida?
miami on shower curtain road
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237. IKE

Quoting GoldCoast2011:


yes i am.
LOL! Imagine that!

Keep an eye on teh blob. It may be an invest soon.
Member Since: Tháng sáu 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
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Quoting PurpleDrank:
Will this hurricane hit New Orleans?


look, troll, put down the cough syrup already....
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Hurricane Preparation 2011
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feels like july instead of end of may
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Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday 31 May 2011
Condition: Sunny
Pressure: 30.14 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 80.8°F
Dewpoint: 67.3°F
Humidity: 64 %
Wind: SSE 7 mph
Humidex: 94
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


It says 'active' periods... Maybe we need to analyse the chart?

I wished it started June 1st. Would make it a much better blog.

We've had an East Coast Low sitting off the coast of Sydney these past 3 days, rain total so far, 4.12in (104.7mm).
Goodnight all.
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Lots of eddy activity in the Gulf of Mexico - more than I recall seeing previously. This is for June 2nd.

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was in Sanibel This weekend water temps were warm but not abnormal for this thime of year. I would expect the mississippi river wont have much of an effect except maybe for the immediate vicinity, and certainly not long range...
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224. JRRP
Quoting PurpleDrank:
Will this hurricane hit New Orleans?

what the coño is that ????
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Quoting Patrap:
lots of TCHP just needs to deepen up
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222. IKE

Quoting GoldCoast2011:


it just sits it there, ike.
Eventually takes it across eastern Cuba. Where are you located....let me guess....south Florida?
Member Since: Tháng sáu 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
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Looks like We may be in for an interesting season.

I don't remember it being so hot so early in the summer here in S. La. Wonder if the massive amounts of river water pouring into the Gulf will keep water
temps down for long ?

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Quoting AussieStorm:

i wonder how many more i will add to my ignore list. Strict Blog Rules start June 1 or only if there is an active Hurricane?


It says 'active' periods... Maybe we need to analyse the chart?
Member Since: Tháng tám 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its going to be a long 182 days

i wonder how many more i will add to my ignore list. Strict Blog Rules start June 1 or only if there is an active Hurricane?
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213. 7544
dry air dosent seem to be effecting our big blob at at this hour hmmmmmm
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Quoting Patrap:
Blog Lurch ?

Model Madness?


Definite signs of the rapture.
Member Since: Tháng tám 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
206. IKE
GFS 12Z @ 156 hours....


Member Since: Tháng sáu 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
We need the mini-low off hatteras to move inland and spread some rain,looks like a decent spin to it also.
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Blog Lurch ?

Model Madness?
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Well, it's been a long off season. Looks like things are heating up quickly on the eve of Hurricane Season 2011.
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Quoting PurpleDrank:
Will this hurricane hit New Orleans?
How can a normal human being ask something like that? :/
Member Since: Tháng tám 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1800
Quoting DestinJeff:
How's it going Party People?

I am back in the nick of time to beat down the NHC for not designating this or that, here or there, etc etc.

Good!!!
It looks to me like they're not paying attention.
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i doubt there is a closed low at the surface the ull over s fl. seems to be moving sw once it get nw of the disturbance look for at the least very heavy rain in jamaica and s cuba the next few days. could be setting up a mini pineapple express coming out the caribean
Member Since: Tháng chín 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4724

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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