An early start to hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, but the Caribbean is already showing signs of the change of seasons. Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity have increased in the region between Central America and Jamaica in recent days, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches have been common over the past three days over Cuba, Hispaniola, and much of Central America. The subtropical jet stream has been bringing high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots over the Caribbean the past week, but this shear has fallen to 20 - 40 knots this morning, and is predicted to fall below 20 knots by Thursday. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. There is some dry air over the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that may retard the process, but a surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently passing through the Lesser Antilles may counteract this, when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Some recent runs of the NOGPAS model have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.
Figure 1. Total precipitable water (a measure of how much rain would fall if we condensed all the water vapor present) for May 31, 2011 at 7am EDT. Plentiful water vapor in the SW Caribbean would create about 2 inches of rain (50 mm, orange colors) if it were all condensed out. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.
Receipt did not travel 525 miles from Joplin tornado
The May 22 EF-5 tornado that struck Joplin, Missouri did not set a new record for longest transport of debris by a tornado. According to MSNBC, a couple living in Royal Center, Indiana, in North Central Indiana, 525 miles from Joplin, found a receipt from the Joplin Tire store three days after the tornado hit Joplin. However, a press release from Purdue University clarified that the receipt did not arrive via the tornado, but had been left behind by a relative that had visited Joplin before the tornado. The longest distance recorded for debris from a storm was a cancelled check that traveled 210 miles after the 1915 tornado in Great Bend, Kansas.
The death toll from the May 22, 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri is 139, although there is still considerable uncertainty about this number. The Joplin tornado is the 8th deadliest in U.S. history, and the most deadly since the 1947 Woodward, Oklahoma twister that killed 181 people. The tornado season of 2011 now has approximately 520 deaths, which would make it the deadliest tornado season since 1936, according to statistics compiled by NOAA. In the 1936 tornado season 552 people died, mostly because of violent tornadoes that hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)
Figure 2. Satellite image taken at 23:45 UTC (7:45pm EDT) May 22, 2011, showing the line of tornadic thunderstorms that spawned the Joplin tornado. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
I think there's a fair chance of us seeing 94L by this evening, looks like it's starting to sort itself out and spin up a little.
Let us rejoice and let us sing and dance and ring in the new
Hail Atlantis!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leI7sfmipuI
Is this a prank?
Yeah its a prank. Please don't do that.
LOL
well I fix this one its different and true no prank
Not scattered showers!!!
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W
WILL CONTINUE W INTO A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THEN
MOVE N ALONG 80W LATE IN THE WEEK.
Not a cloud in the sky.
Woohoo!
Doing well.....day 1 of a 6 month adventure.
Boarded up windows, check
Generator, check
I'm ready bring it on.
I'm not suggesting that there is any cause for panic, but with media hype, there are some people who might see it as cause for concern, regardless of the fact that it isn't.
The anticyclone over 93l has vanished(its now supporting itself). This leaves the windows open for the formation of a new one somewhere else...
That mess in the Carib. could be some Trouble for Haiti in a day or two.
Would be a bad start to the season for them, if they get floods in the first week.
Where on earth could you be referring to? ;)
93L won't be depression until landfall in Florida,there wouldn't be any warnings,you must simply be prepared.Maybe in the GOM...if not probably
It depends whereabout in the Gulf it heads. If it stays north, things could look good for it; south, it will get ripped up into tiny little pieces.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmHeP9Sve48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
426 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE WEATHER PLAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE
THE INVEST AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHWEST
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
US. CURRENT SPEED HAS THIS FEATURE REACHING THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST BY MID MORNING...THOUGH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAX WILL
KICK OFF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER VOLUSIA COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS BY SUNRISE.
00Z MAV POPS CAME IN NEAR 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH...ALMOST
DOUBLE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND THE NAM GUIDANCE. CURRENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS DONT SUPPORT THESE HIGH NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE OVERLY UNSTABLE AND THE
BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA BY
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
MORNING...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
BY THE EVENING HOURS.
Prepare for what? Rain, lightning and wind we have gotten every summer afternoon since I can remember over 40 years
Viewing: 1951 - 2001
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